M5'模型树算法和无人机航拍影像在震后崩塌滑坡分析中的应用——以鲁甸M_S6.5地震为例     

王伟平  杨建思  高瑜  徐志强  姜旭东  郑钰  彭朝勇 《中国地震》2017,33(1):68-80

利用高分辨率无人机航拍影像,结合基本地质资料,分析了影响2014年8月3日鲁甸M_S6.5地震震后崩塌滑坡分布的主要因素,使用M5'模型树算法建立了崩塌滑坡密度与其影响因子间的分段线性模型,并检验了该模型的预测性能。结果表明,地震诱发的崩塌滑坡分布受断层距、岩土体结构强度、坡度、植被条件等的影响,其中,断层距、岩土体结构强度及坡度等为主要影响因素;崩塌滑坡易发生在结构破裂区及坡度为38°~50°的区域,其分布密度随断层距的增加而减小;利用M5'模型树算法建立的模型体现出崩塌滑坡分布与其影响因子间复杂的非线性关系,模型检验结果显示,理论模型与实际关联函数间的相关系数达到0.88,因此,可利用该模型预测地震诱发的崩塌滑坡的分布。  相似文献   

南天山西段地震尾波Q值研究     

尼鲁帕尔&#;买买吐孙  夏爱国  海仁妮莎 《中国地震》2017,33(3):432-441

基于新疆地震台网的数字地震波形资料,采用Aki的地震尾波单次散射模型,选取了南天山西段10个台站周围60km范围内M_S≥2.0的397次地震事件计算并得到了不同台站的尾波Qc值。结果显示,南天山西段尾波Q_0值平均值在140~390之间,其中喀什台和乌恰台Q_0值最低;频率相关系数η的平均值在0.62~1.00之间,拟合平均Q值与对应频率之间的关系结果为Q=261.2±110.8f~(0.80±0.28),表明该地区是以低Q_0高η值为特征的构造活跃区。  相似文献   

CAP1400核岛结构缩尺模型对地震反应影响分析     

李小军  韩杰  王晓辉  贺秋梅 《震灾防御技术》2017,12(2):241-253

针对核电厂CAP1400核岛结构地震反应问题，构建了核岛屏蔽厂房和辅助厂房整体结构的3个分析模型:原型和1/16、1/40缩尺模型，并在AP000谱和RG1.60谱地震动输入下进行了有限元模拟对比分析，探讨了振动台试验模型缩尺处理的合理性和精确性。研究表明，基于缩尺模型得到的结构自振频率相对于原型结构模型有所降低，降低幅度在8.5%以内；结构模型的缩尺对结构反应峰值加速度和高频（大于3Hz）加速度反应谱的影响较为显著，但对较低频（小于3Hz）的加速度反应谱影响较小；模型缩尺对结构不同方向反应的影响中，刚度越大的方向其影响越大。进一步将结构模型数值模拟结果与1/16缩尺模型的振动台试验结果进行了比较分析，试验给出的结构自振频率远低于模型数值模拟结果，但原型和1/16缩尺模型数值模拟得到的结构反应均与试验结果较为接近。基于模型数值模拟和振动台试验研究，认为对于缩尺比1/16或更大的模型可以忽略模型的缩尺效应。  相似文献   

Multicriteria sensitivity analysis as a diagnostic tool for understanding model behaviour and characterizing model uncertainty   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

Amin Haghnegahdar  Saman Razavi  Fuad Yassin  Howard Wheater 《水文研究》2017,31(25):4462-4476

Complex hydrological models are being increasingly used nowadays for many purposes such as studying the impact of climate and land‐use change on water resources. However, building a high‐fidelity model, particularly at large scales, remains a challenging task, due to complexities in model functioning and behaviour and uncertainties in model structure, parameterization, and data. Global sensitivity analysis (GSA), which characterizes how the variation in the model response is attributed to variations in its input factors (e.g., parameters and forcing data), provides an opportunity to enhance the development and application of these complex models. In this paper, we advocate using GSA as an integral part of the modelling process by discussing its capabilities as a tool for diagnosing model structure and detecting potential defects, identifying influential factors, characterizing uncertainty, and selecting calibration parameters. Accordingly, we conduct a comprehensive GSA of a complex land surface–hydrology model, Modélisation Environmentale–Surface et Hydrologie (MESH), which combines the Canadian land surface scheme with a hydrological routing component, WATROUTE. Various GSA experiments are carried out using a new technique, called Variogram Analysis of Response Surfaces, for alternative hydroclimatic conditions in Canada using multiple criteria, various model configurations, and a full set of model parameters. Results from this study reveal that, in addition to different hydroclimatic conditions and SA criteria, model configurations can also have a major impact on the assessment of sensitivity. GSA can identify aspects of the model internal functioning that are counter‐intuitive and thus help the modeller to diagnose possible model deficiencies and make recommendations for improving development and application of the model. As a specific outcome of this work, a list of the most influential parameters for the MESH model is developed. This list, along with some specific recommendations, is expected to assist the wide community of MESH and Canadian land surface scheme users, to enhance their modelling applications.  相似文献   

Coupling snow accumulation and melt rate modules of monthly water balance models with the Jazim monthly water balance model     

Nadereh Tayefeh Neskili  Bahram Saghafian 《水文科学杂志》2017,62(14):2348-2368

Several models for simulation of water balance processes in semi-arid mountainous basins were developed by coupling different modules of existing water balance models (WBM). Snow accumulation and snowmelt rate relationships extracted from the McCabe-Markstrom, Guo, Rao-Al Wagdany and WASMOD-M WBMs, originally developed for basins with humid climate, were coupled with the Jazim WBM, primarily developed for arid basins. Karaj Basin, central Iran, with snowy autumn–winter and dry summer periods, was selected to assess model performance. The model parameters were optimized using a genetic algorithm (GA). All coupled models performed better than the non-modified (original) WBMs in the study basin. The coupled Jazim–McCabe-Markstrom model provided the best performance in simulating low and high monthly flows. It estimated the snowmelt runoff values more accurately than other proposed coupled models because the linear relationships used in the snow module of the McCabe-Markstrom model are more compatible with snow variations in the Karaj Basin.  相似文献   

A conceptual hydrogeological model of ophiolitic aquifers (serpentinised peridotite): The test example of Mt. Prinzera (Northern Italy)          下载免费PDF全文

Stefano Segadelli  Paolo Vescovi  Kei Ogata  Alessandro Chelli  Andrea Zanini  Tiziano Boschetti  Emma Petrella  Lorenzo Toscani  Alessandro Gargini  Fulvio Celico 《水文研究》2017,31(5):1058-1073

The main aim of this study is the experimental analysis of the hydrogeological behaviour of the Mt. Prinzera ultramafic massif in the northern Apennines, Italy. The analysed multidisciplinary database has been acquired through (a) geologic and structural survey; (b) geomorphologic survey; (c) hydrogeological monitoring; (d) physico‐chemical analyses; and (e) isotopic analyses. The ultramafic medium is made of several lithological units, tectonically overlapped. Between them, a low‐permeability, discontinuous unit has been identified. This unit behaves as an aquitard and causes a perched groundwater to temporary flow within the upper medium, close to the surface. This perched groundwater flows out along several structurally controlled depressions, and then several high‐altitude temporary springs can be observed during recharge, together with several perennial basal (i.e., low altitude) springs, caused by the compartmentalisation of the system because of high‐angle tectonic discontinuities.  相似文献   

Impacts of uncertain river flow data on rainfall‐runoff model calibration and discharge predictions     

Hilary McMillan  Jim Freer  Florian Pappenberger  Tobias Krueger  Martyn Clark 《水文研究》2010,24(10):1270-1284

In order to quantify total error affecting hydrological models and predictions, we must explicitly recognize errors in input data, model structure, model parameters and validation data. This paper tackles the last of these: errors in discharge measurements used to calibrate a rainfall‐runoff model, caused by stage–discharge rating‐curve uncertainty. This uncertainty may be due to several combined sources, including errors in stage and velocity measurements during individual gaugings, assumptions regarding a particular form of stage–discharge relationship, extrapolation of the stage–discharge relationship beyond the maximum gauging, and cross‐section change due to vegetation growth and/or bed movement. A methodology is presented to systematically assess and quantify the uncertainty in discharge measurements due to all of these sources. For a given stage measurement, a complete PDF of true discharge is estimated. Consequently, new model calibration techniques can be introduced to explicitly account for the discharge error distribution. The method is demonstrated for a gravel‐bed river in New Zealand, where all the above uncertainty sources can be identified, including significant uncertainty in cross‐section form due to scour and re‐deposition of sediment. Results show that rigorous consideration of uncertainty in flow data results in significant improvement of the model's ability to predict the observed flow. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

基于特征的空间数据模型研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

李文娟  李宏伟  梁汝鹏  刘静 《测绘与空间地理信息》2010,33(1):42-45,51

与传统的基于分层的数据组织方式相比,基于特征的空间数据组织方式更符合人们认识和分析现实世界的模式,有利于完整而精确地描述地理现象。本文详细论述了基于特征的空间数据组织的相关概念,对基于特征的空间数据模型进行了探讨。  相似文献   

基于IGS超快星历预报卫星钟差及其精度分析     

郑作亚  党亚民  卢秀山  郭金运  阳凡林 《测绘科学》2010,35(2):8-12

在实时GPS精密单点定位中,能否快速有效地得到高精度的卫星钟差预报值是影响实时单点定位速度和精度的一个重要因素,由于GPS原子钟的高频率、高敏感和极易受到外界及其本身因素影响的性质使得卫星钟差预报至今都没能得到很好地解决,本文在目前的卫星钟差预报基础上,分别探讨了利用灰色模型理论、线性模型和二次多项式模型等方法,以IGS超快星历中2004年12月7日卫星钟差观测资料预报8日的卫星钟差为例进行卫星钟差预报研究,初步得出如下结论:在利用IGS超快星历的前一天的卫星钟差观测值预报后一天的钟差时,线性模型相对方便有效;而灰色模型只要选取合适的模型指数系数,能得到较高精度;但二次多项式模型预报精度较差。利用线性模型能达到或优于IGS超快星历预报钟差的预报精度。  相似文献   

Accuracy improvement of ASTER stereo satellite generated DEM using texture filter     

Mandla V.Ravibabu  Kamal Jain  Surendra Pal Singh  Naga Jyothi Meeniga 《地球空间信息科学学报》2010,13(4):257-262

The grid DEM(digital elevation model) generation can be from any of a number of sources:for instance,analogue to digital conversion of contour maps followed by application of the TIN model,or direct elevation point modelling via digital photogrammetry applied to airborne images or satellite images.Currently,apart from the deployment of point-clouds from LiDAR data acquisition,the generally favoured approach refers to applications of digital photogrammetry.One of the most important steps in such deployment i...  相似文献